Next post: Global Warming -- The Truth and The Myth

February 28, 2010

Global Warming -- The Truth and The Myth - 2

1 2

The history of climate temperature trends

History is greatest source of knowledge. After all history is nothing but an accumulated knowledge of innumerable minds, events. To have a better future we must learn history. We observe, analyze, learn, correct and better ourselves which leads to evolution. But what if history itself is a puzzle? What if the hands which pass on the history to new generations mishandle it? For better or worse - how to trust?

The question arose and man baffled. He is common man, like me. 

Ask a psychologist on why a person is behaving as he is and he will explain it to you. Ask him to observe and link the behavior of all family members of that particular person and that will be a challenge for psychologist. Then ask him to link the behavior of all the citizens in that city, state or country. And then to interconnect behavioral nature of human being in whole globe! The probability of making a mistake increases in each stage. Why does it happen? When you need to interlink two data you need to find some relation between the two. In simple terms you need a formula that should hold good for all and satisfy all conditions. To find it is real tough task ahead. Something similar happened with global warming. There were theories to explain warming of the climate. Now people wanted to connect them because they strongly felt or their theory pointed to an overall increase in average temperature on Earth. The real challenge was to study the pattern of changes in average temperature over the past and the present. This could demonstrate us how temperature varied all the while in the past, how it is changing[increasing] in recent years rapidly and if it continues this way how would our future look like?

But it is not as simple as it looks. There are many challenges involved in this. First, collect the historical data of temperature on Earth. It requires an answer to, from what all locations we should pick temperature data which could give a meaning to what we say ‘Global’. Next, need to find the mean temperature with all collected information. Also you need to determine on differentiating the data based on factors such as ocean, land, which layer of the atmosphere, etc. The factors in a particular location which could have been exposed to some sudden climate changes due to natural/manmade pollution also need to be taken care of owing to the impact it might have on the mean value of the data.

As I have mentioned earlier there was no temperature data available until recently. A team of scientists used paleo-climatic data from about 17 sites around the world to generate a thousand year long records for both northern and southern hemispheres. This used multi proxies of temperature sources such as tree rings, ice core. Jones et al. came up with a report which affirmed 20th century is the warmest of last 600 years. 

But later it received high criticism over the methodology used in constructing temperature trends and to correct the UHI effects [UHI refers to the tendency for urban areas to have warmer air temperatures than the surrounding rural landscape, due to the low albedo of streets]. Different individuals reported their studies indicating, in regions as in Australia, northern or southern hemisphere the stations that are considered for the study by Jones et al 1986 were affected with UHI. Considering Australia, Jones et al 1986 looked at 86 Australian stations and rejected 46 (25 Short term – 21 long term). Of the 40 they used 27 were short term and 13 long term. Of the long term there were 5 large cities. There are claims that Jones et al systematically truncated data and ignored more rural data.

Even the Peterson 2003 report which claimed there is no observable difference in urban and rural trends in its network has been criticized by many. If we consider both rural and urban trends there is a difference of about 0.7 0C. And when you consider cities with major league sports franchise along with rural you will find over 2 0C per century!!

Moving little back in time, IPCC 2001 report came up with a terrifying graph:

This is famously known as ‘Hocky Stick Graph’ with its look-alike pattern. The debate concerning the methodology started in 2003 with Stephen McIntyre, the editor of Climate Audit, and Professor Ross McKitrick, a Canadian economist, raising voices against Mann et al.’s [Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes] hocky stick graph claiming that the graph has serious flaw/defects in its data and calculations. This led to two important investigations. One by scientists convened by NRC [National Research Council] and other one by three statistician chaired by Edward Wegman, statistics professor who was also past chair of the National Research Council’s Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics.

Interestingly the outcomes of two investigations differed. NRC report supported MBH [Mann et al.] reconstructed temperature graph and mentioned that though there are shortcomings in the statistics they are small in effect. And the Wegman report [committee on energy and commerce report] mentioned that MBH98 and MBH99 were found to be "somewhat obscure and incomplete" and the criticisms by McIntyre and McKitrick were found to be "valid and compelling." Both listed the reasons of their findings.

Also Mann did not wish to make the data/source code used in their study public. But finally he had to make the data public after a lot of criticism and pressure. Once it was available reviews are done and in 2005 McIntyre and McKitrick mentioned that 7 of their 10 findings are confirmed by reviews. But again in 2008 Mann et al. published updated reconstruction of Earth’s surface temperature and again McIntyre and McKitrick reported new studies with criticisms.

If that is one story few skeptics also came up with below interesting graph:

It is crystal clear from this graph that there is dramatic increase in average temperature starting 1990. But the point to note is there is dramatic decrease in number of stations starting 1990!! Is this merely a coincidence? Is the loss in number of stations uniform across the world? From the data it was found that this loss in stations occurred mostly in former Soviet Union, China, Africa and South America. Now, that is called cherry-picking the data to prove that global warming is happening and very fast.

In recent time, especially after climategate incident the temperature data reliability has become most suspicious. At the end of 2009 New Zealand Government’s chief climate advisory unit NIWA is put under fire for manipulating raw climate data to depict a strong global warming trend which did not exist. And similarly it happened in Russia as well. IEA [Institute of economic analysis] issued a report which claimed Hadley center for climate change based at British Meteorological Office headquarters had probably tampered the Russian-climate data. It is said that while Russian meteorological stations cover most of the country’s territory, the Hadley Center had used data submitted by only 25% of such stations in its reports. And the data of stations that are not listed does not show any substantial warming in late 20th century.

To understand this cherry-picking is not really difficult. Consider below:
The temperature patterns in both look different. If I want to support global warming I use only Bangalore’s data skipping Cochin’s. While this is just a very raw example to show what can be done to prove global warming.

And coming to very recent time, while I am certain most of us felt January 2010 is mostly found to be the coldest one. But surprisingly it is found that, considering sea surface temperature January 2010 is second warmest in last 130 years. But at the same time land temperature is not that significant [12th warmest]. And coming to sea surface temperature it is attributed to El Nino conditions in the pacific.

Now the question is - With all this information what do we understand? The only answer I can give is, the history of temperature trend itself is still a big question.

We need to check few things before we move further or else this discussion becomes incomplete.

Truth always emerges out of a contradiction. Contradiction raises questions. And the truth that contradiction cannot exist starts a quest for a higher truth which will clear the contradiction. In this way, contradictions play a very important role in growth of science and hence the society. But on the other side, there are forces that create contradictions to mislead us from the path of truth. What is the motive behind these forces - is a different question.

So where does the questions, concerns or claims of the skeptics stand? Are they to mislead us? Are they delaying the steps that need to be taken to avoid a global disaster?

Existence of Global warming is not a claim or an idea with little importance. You started with an idea that global average temperature is raising. And you wanted to prove it. Now, to prove it you must prove that it exists. In order to do that you need to compare temperature data over many thousands of years and not mere few tens/hundreds of years. But the fact is we don’t have such data available. When we tried to get the data generated using proxies they are being questioned for which there no satisfactory answer is given.

Even when it seems that most agree to the point that in recent years temperature definitely increased there are certainly great differences in the views over many questions such as ‘what is average increase in temperature?’ or ‘as global warming supporters really claim, is it mainly due to greenhouse effect?’

But for this complexity of the situation do we see any solution? Is there a way to achieve consensus over a methodology to clear our views over the temperatures trends in the past? One probable solution I can see is to go public. Make the information, every source code public. Don’t make any adjustments to the raw data. Let all men of related section debate over the approach. I am certain we will find a more correct and efficient approach. No one can hide any truth; mishandle any data without letting know others. Don’t you think then people will have more satisfaction over the way things are moving. If you want to put up a theory let others observe, analyze and scrutinize it so that the validity of your theory is established. In this process your theory might undergo few changes for the better and correct itself. Don’t you think this will avoid any chances of creating a contradiction with an intention to mislead people?

And finally, don’t you think this is possible? It just requires an open debate with a chance for everyone to review the data. While there might be concerns over financial terms like funding for the research which force the scientists in corresponding research field to withhold information they have. But yes, if it continues that way I really don’t see any other way to establish the truth in simple way; not at least in the short period we expect. It might really take tens of years just to clarify all questions relating to history of temperature trend. The truth has to emerge one day. But with the approach we have right now it is going to take more time.

In order to move further to other topics let’s consider the point that global warming is happening and leave aside the question ‘At what rate?’ Further sections will deal with questions such as, ‘Is it something we need to really worry about? Is it natural or man-made? What are policies brought up to curb global warming? What should we do to avoid any possible disaster? ...’

Next post on the factors contributing to global warming...

1 2

February 7, 2010

Global Warming -- The Truth and The Myth - 1

1 2


Why 100? If I were wrong, then one would have been enough!!

Einstein quoted this when he was mentioned about publish of the pamphlet or booklet of the form ‘One Hundred Scientists against Einstein’ which primarily opposed his theories. I felt this famous quote is just pertinent to the discussion to start with. Why – let’s check that later.

Global warming is one of the most debated topics of current time. It has been placed among top debated topics list from last many years - till date. With 2012 doomsday it was easy. It was easy because the facts were clear. Only the mind willing to understand, analyze and convey the facts was required. But with global warming it is a different story. It is not just the result of some superstitions, ideas of some religious fanatic, fear mongers greed, or so called pseudo-science mixed up with science creating confusion among the people. But here we need to deal with politicized science, the differences among scientific community itself, and the lack of transparency which makes this topic complex, and difficult to conclude.

I started studying about global warming in 2007 for a couple of months – and later came to a decision but could never actually share it with most. Now again from last couple of months this is making headlines. So this time, I thought, let’s get into little more details and sort them in an ordered manner. And I started writing this. But it takes time, I agree. Considering I already have some background on this, it still looks a new challenge. And to write it – you really can write some hundreds of pages. But the aim is to make it simple, understandable, concise, and effective enough to have a clear conclusion.

Before I get into dealing with assumptions, better to check the facts. The facts as in what global warming is, what are the factors that are found [or thought] to be causing it, what is current opinion of scientists or governments or people on global warming, and what are some incidents that added to boost the distrust between each other in all these different sections.

Global Warming and the Current Opinion

Now to start with, what is global warming? It is increase in the average temperature of Earth. And in 20th century it increased by about 0.56-0.92 0C.

The concerns for global warming grew as scientists started claiming that it might actually lead to catastrophe if not controlled.

Until late 1960s there were no data sets of temperature. Murray Mitchell of the U.S. Weather Bureau's Office of Climatology had the most complete set of data at the time, but it mainly was for northern hemisphere. Later after collecting existing data it was found that earth was getting warmer from late 19th century to 1940 but then it started cooling. Then again after 1975 it started getting warmer. James Hansen of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies attributed this cooling to aerosols and mentioned while cooling effect due to aerosols is for a short term, the increasing CO2 level will continue to contribute to warming of the climate through greenhouse effect. And that, he stressed, is more concerning as it might lead to natural disasters.

Melting of glaciers, dramatic variation in climate impacting agriculture and everyday life, droughts, rising sea levels encroaching land are all symptoms of global warming impacts. The predictions and beliefs a great deal according to many studies conducted time to time. It also varies in great deal based on region. Considering US, in 2006 Americans were much less concerned, about 20-40% about global warming. But by 2007-2008, 97% of the population was aware of global warming and 63% considered it as a serious threat. And 36% was aware of global warming and not considered it to be a threat. By 2009 end, Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that only 25% of adults thought there is consensus about global warming among most scientists. And about 59% of Americans think scientists have falsified the research data to support their own theories and beliefs about global warming. The confidence on global warming kept on dropping and reached to 46% from 51% last year in US.

This pattern of increased belief and then a drop over time is almost the same in most of the countries. The recent incidents of Copenhagen Accord failure, Climategate incident, IPCC statement about Himalayan melting might have contributed to growing disbelief in global warming. Apart from that the extremists among scientists at the both ends, the not-so-concrete opinions of governments, large number of economic influences from various sources have confused common people. Also to form a opinion on global warming people must rely on experts in the corresponding field for the data. And the distrust of whether the data they are providing is accurate or twisted is another reason to turn-off the enthusiasts.

On the other side the advocates of global warming say there is no skepticism left and a clear consensus on the matter of global warming exists; though the surveys tell a different story. Still, a large number of increasing opinion is to curb the GHG [green house gases] keeping safety and clean environment in mind.

Even in political area the opinions vary. Comparing Republicans and Democrats, the belief that global warming has already begun has fallen from 47% to 41% among republicans whereas it increased from 46% to 76% among democrats in the period 1998-2008. Also the percentage of republicans saying media exaggerates the seriousness of global warming has increased from 34 to 59% among republicans, and is decreased from 23 to 18% among democrats in same 1998-2008 period.

That was to understand the current opinion of the people belonging to different sections in the society. The curiosity that people have on this very topic is much because global warming affects their lives directly. It is them or their next generation that is at risk. And people are confused on what to believe because of so much conflicting news which keeps appearing every few days. There are so many haunting questions but we do not know what to believe?!

Is global warming really happening?

Is global warming man made or natural?

Is global warming a boon or bane for mankind?

What steps should be taken to control global warming?

And finally a more important question is, can we or science answer to these questions at this stage?



1 2

January 26, 2010

2012 doomsday - why it gained so much attention? - 7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

The Call

I put my point and nothing more is left for now. At the end I wish to give call to common people as well as men of science.

The call to common people:
-- Join me in asserting ‘Doomsday prediction is a hoax’
-- Don’t fall for the gimmicks of fear mongers but ask for the basis of their prediction. If you really think it is something you alone can’t analyze approach any person who might be just right resource on that particular subject.
-- Spread this to message to your friends and relatives and every known person and don’t say ‘I don’t know’ but say, ‘doomsday is all hoax’.
-- This is not just for 2012 predictions but for all such future predictions. So try to imbibe the way to analyze any such events and filter to figure out what percentage of truth it has.

The call to the men of science:
-- Please don’t hesitate in asserting ‘the world won’t end in 2012’ as you know it best and people want to hear it from you.
-- Involve yourself in more and more public interaction programs to help them understand what is right and what is wrong. And more importantly, show them the right way of thinking.
-- Understand your responsibilities towards society. It is not enough to work but more important is to make people aware of what you are doing and to tell them why it is good.
-- Inspire young in the society to have interest in science and to be creative so that they can learn to be open to science instead of aiming to have a job and work like robots.
-- Instruct politicians and the government on what steps are required and how to tackle any issues that need science.








Related links:

Maya and other religion based opinions

Different theories and counter-arguments

Mass Hysteria and other



Previous

2012 doomsday - why it gained so much attention? - 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7


The fear mongers

When we have large section of people who tend to believe 2012 doomsday predictions there is another important section which wants people to believe it!! These sections of people keep looking for an opportunity to make big money and this is just right for them.

Take a look at our Hollywood moviemakers. They keep looking for such new concepts. While doomsday is not a new concept, it appeared now again with a freshness in it. So Roland Emmerich came up with movie ‘2012’ which has a budget of $200 million and grossed more than $767 million. This is 5th highest grossing film in 2009[‘The Day After Tomorrow’ which was also a disaster movie depicted catastrophic effects of global warming and was directed by same director. Gross revenue of that movie is $544 million]. Moviemakers know that movies based on a catastrophic disaster are rare to fail in box office. So they jump as soon as they hear such disaster prediction. Now to make a movie they need a story. And as it is fiction they need not care for facts. If they go for facts they would end up making a non-disaster movie!! So you can be sure that always a movie based on disaster has to show disaster happenning. And of course they don’t have choice but having the main character to support that prediction by providing facts. And as we need to make movie interesting it will have lot and lot of skeptics and almost all government officials and scientists would go against him. You can note that these skeptics won’t bother to check evidences or details but they just laugh off. Director is well aware that otherwise it doesn’t impress the viewers much. So the story goes…

The same thing applies to media as well. They want viewers. So they want exciting news. And now they got it: 2012!! They really don’t want to take sides because they are well aware of its impact. People will get the idea or the point that media is depicting. And excitement no longer sustains. So they continue their struggle to retain that excitement in the mass as long as possible. How can I forget it influenced a young child in India for suicide over LHC collider doomsday fear?!

Even in newspapers I rarely see an article condemning this 2012 hoax published in front page or at a location where people can notice it quickly. You will get it somewhere in the middle of newspaper with some 30-40 lines scribbled where rarely someone takes pain to read.

The question we need to consider is, is it moral or ethical for media including television, newspapers, and movies to depict a baseless prediction as some top priority issue? When we have grave concerns in our society such as economic imbalance, poverty, terrorism etc how moral it is to divert all attention to doomsday stuff? They have forgotten their moral responsibilities. They are moved to a stage where they don’t have anything left but to look out for profits. They have lost their souls. They are well aware of the impact of this on the society. Still they continue with what brings them money.

While I don’t believe all of them belong to this category what we see today shows majority of them belong to this category.

What about the religious gurus? They are welcomed with great respect and provided a nice chair to sit and every facility one could seek for. Then these gurujis start talking. They talk about just everything in the universe from science to philosophy to your lives. I hate to see it. It’s irritating to the core. But I force myself to sit and hear him talking things he isn’t aware of because that’s how we understand them, study them. But these gurujis have studied minds, minds of the common. They know very well what to say and when to say. All they know is mantras which make them superior to others. Apart from that they know nothing. They come and talk about science? It is disgrace to science. They are going to tell us what global warming is? Ask him the definition of global warming. They are going to tell me if I do pooja god will be happy and let me escape from doomsday? Doesn’t god know how to distinguish good from the bad but need a pooja to do that? Every saying of these guruji get them one of the two things: Name or Money.

If I hurt feelings of any of the readers I beg your pardon. Our true enemy is not our differences in opinions. It is not our respective religions, not our casts, not our colors, not the borders that separate us. But it is these people who have lost their morality and it is their greed. I feel very sad when I see we give so much respect and waste our money on so many useless things because some guruji asked for it. I wonder why can’t we just analyze and see what life he is leading, where our money is going, how he can have his own home, car, nice amenities and his own living!!

Let these gurujis and babas aside, we have politicians to look at as well. What intention a politician can have in supporting doomsday? There are many reasons why they might be willing to support doomsday hype. In Karnataka [India] we already have a chief minister who performs pooja for anything and everything imaginable. The very first day he became chief minister he went and performed pooja to his chief minister chair!! Now if he himself believes in doomsday theory I won’t be surprised. That is anyway his personal belief and does not fall under this topic.

But I want to discuss the dangers of influence of such beliefs in a minister. It is not really surprising if we start seeing government projects put on hold because they want to see what would be the impact of 2012 doomsday. They will say we will resume work if everything is fine or else we might lose large sum of amount vanished by doomsday partial catastrophe!! Why does people need any education, any facilities when they are about to die soon in disasters? What if we see a partial damage and damage is done at the places where we are planning to invest money? Also why can’t government itself perform a Maha Yajna for the sake of good of all the people in the state?

Though these look very farfetched this kind of thought will definitely influence politicians. And not only politicians but also the common people who with such thought might become less resistive to any injustice. This very same doomsday news can be used as a very effective weapon to divert people’s thoughts from current burning issues to something that actually doesn’t exist.

It is very much possible and majority of politicians we know won’t hesitate to use this for their own advantage.

These people are the fear mongers who do not wish you to forget the 2012 doomsday until it surpasses and they can come up with a new doomsday prediction.


2012 doomsday - why it gained so much attention? - 5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7


The scientists and the known

We have many who know the facts. When I say facts it is facts and figures corresponding to all the events that are put forth by doomsayers to support their theories.

Now when a supporter states, ‘geomagnetic reversal is going to prove fatal for the human species in 2012’ the known scientists or others start providing information related to this geomagnetic reversal. Ok, it happened so many years ago, we don’t have a specific time to foretell when it is going to happen, even if it happens there is no evidence to say it is going to cause adverse effect on human beings.

Problem with such statements is, again common man misses the conclusion. The question he asks is, ‘you are saying you don’t know when it will happen next? Means science can’t really assert doomsday is not going to happen. There are people who are very affirmative in their statements when they say doomsday is near and it is going to happen on that exact day. They seem to know more than you. They even have evidences to what they are saying. What do you have? You just keep saying you don’t know. I want you to prove that doomsday is not going to happen in 2012 and so to prove doomsayers wrong. Do that and then I can believe in what you want me to believe!!’

The scientists are doing their job by providing what is the truth. But that is not enough. They need to put these things together and assert that doomsday predictions and theories are all baseless, pure speculations, and tampered themselves to mix up with each other. And they need to assert that no one can predict future and tell why no one can predict future. Only prediction about future can come from a scientific analysis which can logically, objectively show why it is predicting what it is predicting.

In scientific field people make accurate statements. So they hesitate to say geomagnetic reversal is not going to happen in 2012. Because the fact is they don’t know when it is going to occur. But what responsibility they should take up is, to go forward to people and convince them that, ‘geomagnetic reversal can happen anytime which no one can predict. No person can predict that it is going to happen on 21st Dec 2012. So the news that it is going to happen on that day is a big hoax. And it is not going to cause any casualties let aside the catastrophe.’ Then people will understand. This is one task that people in scientific field need to take up.

Fear mongers actually try to make use of this uncertainty of science in predicting future to make their point. But we need to note that while science cannot predict it no one else can. It is only the stories that can really have true foretellers. If you think clearly you find that all the foretellers are not better than any other good magician. They are good magicians who make their living in the name of having super natural power. Or they utter something which looks like a code and when you decipher it you see that it really happened!! There is nothing but a psychological aspect here. They say exactly something which could be deciphered to get more than one meaning so that you will get the meaning you are looking for. Anyway, if you are not satisfied on this point I will be getting back with different article soon. But the truth is there are no real foretellers in this world. Only science can foretell anything in this universe that is possible. So tell fear mongers that when science could not foretell how can you? What basis you have to prove your point? Why should I believe you?

 And many come up with question, ‘can you disprove what that doomsayer is saying?’ Now, I will certainly disprove it if only you can prove me wrong when I say ‘a person can continue to live even if we remove his heart and brain from his body’. Do it. Prove me wrong and I will prove the doomsayer wrong!! The point here is simple. The question disproving doesn’t arise at all if we don’t have proof for it. The very truth that there is no proof to it is itself proof that it is not valid.

And still some other come up saying, ‘Haiti earthquake happened recently, Tsunami happened in India and Srilanka regions, Katrina hurricane killed thousands. When we have seen such natural catastrophes happening and are not able to stop them how do you say doomsday won’t happen in 2012?’ I wonder where our foretellers were when these natural disasters hit us. But we have lot and lots of such foretellers claiming they had known it would happen and predicted it well before!! Anyway coming back to this particular question, the point is no one is saying catastrophes will never occur. But the question we are dealing with is predicting such catastrophe well before without any basis is incorrect, immoral, and unethical. Tsunami might again hit us in 2011, why 2012? Yes, we can see few natural disasters as we saw until now but how do you predict it?

In fact if our system works as expected, and we have sophisticated precautionary steps well planned we can actually see to it that these natural disasters harm no lives, at least not significantly. If you ask me, the question of earthquake killing hundreds of thousands of people[officially as of 24th Jan 150000 people are buried in the capital alone] is not important than the question of living condition people in Haiti before earthquake. Check these facts:

-- As per GDP per capita, every person gets only $2 per day. That comes under extreme poverty section. -- Of about 8.2 million population 1% [which is ~80,000] of them are rich and hold half of the country’s wealth.
-- So considering GDP and this fact about 8.1 million people are hardly getting $1 per day. Such is the extreme state of country’s economy.
-- At least 225000 children are under slavery.
-- Debt per capita is $169.
-- Over 90% children suffer from waterborne diseases and intestinal parasites.





Now, would it be better for Haiti if no earthquake would have happened? No. The reality is something else. If the economic condition of Haiti would have been better and assuming the system was efficient then the chances were that they would be able to identify forthcoming earthquake bit earlier, they would be prepared well to save their people and to provide them with better relocation facilities, and even the infrastructure itself would have been better to withstand the earthquake. That would have saved hundreds of thousands of people from dying.

I think this is real problem we should be discussing about; we should be looking into and not baseless predictions about 2012 doomsday.


Previous   Next

2012 doomsday - why it gained so much attention? - 4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7


Why people believe?

The theories mentioned above are not ALL. These are few popularized theories that exist among us. But as mentioned we do not have any evidence to show that these will occur or if they occur it is in 2012.

Then why? Why all of them say it happens in the 2012? There must be something in it. It cannot be a mere co-incidence. This is how majority of people think. Good if you asked these questions to yourself. But it is sad if it made you believe in doomsday prediction.

Let’s look at the different sections in the society that might easily fall for such predictions:

One large section of society comprises of uneducated people. Many poor families could not afford expensive education in current society even they wish to. They depend on either physical work in the industries or the agriculture. The environment they live cannot possibly provide them any opportunity for intellectual growth. So they understand many natural phenomena, natural laws, the links between different sections of the nature and society, the responsibilities of an individual holding different positions in the society. When they themselves can’t grow intellectually because they can’t afford education and because they can’t read or write they tend to believe in what those whom they believe to be intellectuals tell them. While there is large section of such poor uneducated people we also have a large number of people who take advantage of it to make a fine living out of it. These people are our Babas, Gurujis, or similar kind of people.

Also this uneducated, poor section can’t even get a statement, assertion that doomsday is not going to happen from the media as well. And if they have any educated respected person among them they find that even he can’t assert that doomsday is not going to happen.

So it is very natural that they tend to believe doomsday is going to come. Even different religions taught them some kind of prophecy about the end of the world. Religious prophecies won’t give out the date but all of them have a doomsday prophecy. The people think, ‘See!! It is coming. The intellectuals found the year which is 2012!!’ They get colorful picture and description of how it is going to happen as well.

Now, a question remains. Why the so called intellectuals do that? Why babas or gurujis say doomsday is coming? Let it aside, why even an educated person can’t assert doomsday won’t happen? We will look into first question bit later but let’s consider this educated section now.

Tell me frankly what you feel about our education system. It is kind of worse that I have seen or heard and that is getting more and more worsen each day. What they teach? What is quality of our textbooks? How the exams are conducted? What is the aim of getting education? Answer these and you will get the picture of what an educated person look like today. The current society is creating educated fools, educated robots. First, education is expensive. Second, there is nothing that it teaches except to get you some certificates and hence a job. The aim of a student is to clear the exams and get a job. The aim of a teacher is to make his students pass well so that he can earn a good name and hence good salary. The aim of an education institution is to get more students, get them good scores and hence make lot of money. Between this no one cares what should be educational content. People take up science and they don’t even get an idea of what scientific thinking means. If you want to be a software engineer you need not know how solar eclipse occurs do you? Why the hell a doctor should care for economy when his work is to treat patients? In one of his documentary, the biologist and proponent of evolution Richard Dawkins asks a chemistry professor how old he thinks the earth is? The answer he gets is, it should some thousands of years. As Dawkins also comments, being a professor in science field how can someone think the earth is just a few tens of thousands of years old?! People in scientific field do not know the basic facts of science. Then how can we expect them to get a thinking mechanism that is scientific. It is different topic to discuss but yes, this is what our education system is. It is aiming at creating robots who can just do their jobs but don’t have a scientific outlook, their own thinking or analyzing capability, and any creativity.

These types of people who say earth could be just a few thousands of years older are impractical, unscientific but educated. People respect them because they are in science field. But in reality they do not know science so they can’t really tell what the reality is. There is not much difference between these people and uneducated.

Another kind of section is people who are educated and are practical people who know what science says. But the issue is with their thinking. This section wants to keep science at a respectable place but they do not like to mix it with other aspects of their lives. The tradition says the number 13 is bad omen so I believe in it. Now I don’t want to mix it with science so I continue with my belief. And my astrologer says ‘some planet is in bad position in my current astrologic chart so better to avoid any good programs till it goes off and go for a pooja’ I will go for it. Science can’t really help me in this because this is not within its boundary. This is the kind of thinking this section has. Now it points at one thing. They believe that there is something more than science. And that superior thing can explain things that are inexplicable by science. You can’t really use scientific method to believe this superior thing. This very thinking make them believe in doomsday predictions. They don’t trust science outside the boundary that they put. Not when it comes to doomsday prediction they try to think standing outside that boundary. But outside that boundary belief is everything; there is no place for any basis. So most likely they fall for it. Or in case they made up their minds not to believe it, still they can’t assert that it is not going to happen because of contradiction they are facing. With this conflict of mind they cannot help others as well.

These three sections make majority of the population. There are people who pretend to take it lightly by saying, ‘Anyway we can’t do anything when it happens, then why worry?’, or ‘at least I won’t have to pay my bills then, that’s good!!’, or ‘anyway this society is full of crap, injustice and cruel. Let it go!!’ etc. Even when they make such remarks they know that they are uncertain about what to believe, what is right approach, how much they should be worried about. They belong to the section where they have contradictions in their minds and are confused about how to approach.




2012 doomsday - why it gained so much attention? - 3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7


So-termed “Scientific predictions”

There are many predictions that are believed to be scientific by the common man. These vary from a plant, asteroid hitting earth, Sun flares destroying earth, volcano destroying the earth etc. Before you start with these topics I must say, there is a big difference between the general speculations and scientific speculation. A scientific speculation consists of some boundaries which define limits to how far a speculation could go. Like we say, we expect solar flares and that might cause some damage to our infrastructure.

Let’s look at them one by one briefly:

Nibiru or Planet-X or Eris:



Many people are not clear with the relation between Nibiru and planet X when they talk about them. Many say Nibiru itself is called Planet-X also. But many believe they are different.
Anyway Nibiru is a planet or brown dwarf[the celestial object which is not completely a star nor a planet is called brown dwarf. These are called failed stars in general terms] which orbits around sun every 3600 years. And it is claimed to be found by Sumerians or Mesopotamians in their time. Ironic thing is these claims came from modern writers who claimed such thing in fictions. There is no evidence to say that actually it was found or noted by Sumerians or Mesopotamians. In fact, the interesting point is it was supposed to hit us in 2003 as per doomsayers. But unfortunately they failed but did not lose their belief. So, they moved the date to 21st Dec, 2012!!
Planet-X is a name given to any possible object. In 1983 many sources of infrared are found but many suspected objects found to be distant galaxies. But that news of lots of infrared sources are found, created stir among the media and public. Many started with this planet-x theory and are continuing till date. They just want to believe it, so are continuing to believe it even if scientists made it clear there is no such thing. Between, now the claim is even this is about to collide earth on that very same fateful day. Now what else should I tell except that there is not a single evidence to prove it?
Eris was also once a planet-x but now is recognized as dwarf planet which is smaller than our moon. And it is in an orbit that will bring it closer to earth by minimum of 4 billion miles. Absolutely there is no proof to say that Eris might even touch us!
Those who claim that these exist even provide images, videos to make us believe. But they are all false and images of other celestial objects tampered to present them as real Nibiru/Planet-X. So, don’t fall for them.

Galactic alignment:

The Galactic Alignment is the alignment of the winter [or December] solstice sun [winter solstice happens when the earth's axial tilt is farthest away from the sun at its maximum of 23° 26'] with the Galactic equator[The Galactic Equator is a virtual line that describes 0 degrees longitude and 0 degrees latitude, and acts as a divisionary line between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Milky Way galaxy. Don’t mistake it for Galactic center!]. This Galactic Alignment occurs only once every 25,800 years. Earth wobbles very slowly on its axis and shifts the position of the equinoxes and solstices one degree every 71.5 years. This causes December solstice sun to precess through the Galactic equator. And now, doomsayers say that in 2012 this galactic alignment is going to happen. And the doomsayers say that Mayans were aware of this galactic alignment. And that this galactic alignment in 2012 will be causing the catastrophe.

But the truth is galactic alignment is not a single day event but is of 36 years as precession depends on the diameter of the sun. And the most precise alignment has already occurred in 1998 with no major incidents observed. Also there is no evidence that Mayans were aware of precessions and gave any importance to solstices.

Geomagnetic reversal:

Geomagnetic reversal is where our earth’s magnetic north pole shifts to South Pole and magnetic South Pole shifts to where north magnetic pole is present.
We understand that earth has its own magnetic field. Also it spins as it orbits. This spin, in fact causes churning of molten iron inside and a stable magnetic field. But it happens that magnetic poles slowly shift and at one point of time suddenly switch their positions leading to geomagnetic reversal.

Now we don’t have any idea when that might happen. It has been observed that there is no regularity in time period between the pole reversals in the past. Last geomagnetic reversal occurred 780000 years ago.

When scientists do not know when this pole reversal will happen next, our doomsayers being far more advanced than the scientists predicted that it is going to happen in 2012!! They also have theories of Nibiru, planet-X, solar flares that are going to cause this geomagnetic reversal. Still moving ahead they seem to know that it is going to have catastrophic effect on earth while our scientists assert there won’t be any bad impact from geomagnetic reversal!!

Blackhole alignment:


At the center of our milkyway galaxy we have Sagittarius A* which is a very compact, bright astronomical radio source. It is very likely that we have a supermassive black hole located near this Sagittarius A*.

Apparently in 2012 this supermassive blackhole would cause gravitational disruption to solar system which will be proved fatal for earth. Why should it happen on that very day itself? Because we are about to have galactic alignment on the very same day!! Now that we know the precise galactic alignment was in 1998 which already is a past. Still doomsayers say it is going to happen on the day!! Even if we assume galactic alignment would happen in 2012 it scientifically makes no sense to say that it is going to cause gravitational disruption. Remember, as I already mentioned galactic alignment is not galactic center!! So we are still about 26000 light years away from galactic center. And for that supermassive blackhole to disrupt gravitational field it should come many million times close to us. And that is not going to happen.

So there is not a single scientific evidence to prove that blackhole alignment is going to cause havoc on earth.

Solar Flare:

Solar activity follows a natural cycle called solar cycle every 11 years. The activity peaks every 11 years and reduces to minimum every 11 years. Similar to earth’s great ocean conveyor belt we have a conveyor belt in sun but of charged hot gas. When cold sunspots are swept by this belt they will reach where sun’s magnetic dynamo amplifies them. Then they will float up to the surface. At this time we see solar flares. Naturally at the peak time of solar cycle there will be more sunspots and hence more solar flare.



As we see scientists at present are almost certain that it will be an average solar flare. Still they also mention that the similar sized solar storm which occurred in 1859 [Carrington event] electrified transmission cable, set fires in telegraph offices, produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow. And yes, considering today’s high-tech technology it might cost more expensive than then with damage amounting to 1 or 2 trillion dollars! But yes, it cannot damage the life on earth. So in worst case we are going to experience damages to satellites, transmission cables etc but not to life. In fact the damage to infrastructure we are talking about is the worst case. Majority chances are that we are going to experience much little trouble than this like a delay of 1 or two hours in some satellite programs or having trouble making a call and like that.

Also most important point to note is, this solar storm will be occurring in 2013!! So, if doomsday already occurs on 21st Dec 2012 we need not even worry about solar flares, Isn’t it?!! So yes, in any angle this cannot lead to a catastrophe!!

Volcanic eruption:

Lake Toba is located in the middle of the northern part of the Indonesian island of Sumatra. We have seen the largest volcanic eruption in this location last time with a VEI[volcanic explosivity index] intensity of 8. This is biggest known to us in last 25 million years which wiped out about 65% of the total population!

Although the volcanic eruption took place in Indonesia, it deposited an ash layer approximately 15 centimeters thick over the entire Indian subcontinent; at one site in central India, the Toba ash layer today is up to 6 meters thick and parts of Malaysia were covered with 9 m of ash fall. In addition it has been calculated that 1010 metric tons of sulphuric acid was ejected into the atmosphere by the event, causing acid rain fallout.

Now it is said that it completed its 74000 year cycle will again erupt in 2012! And it will be bigger than the last time, so almost all the human species will go extinct!!

But the fact is, it is estimated that last time this volcanic eruption occurred 67500-75500 years ago. And it is impossible to say it erupted exactly 74000 years ago. Even when we consider earlier calderas, they are formed around 700, 000 and 840, 000 years ago. So it makes it highly impossible to predict when it will erupt as it might actually take hundreds of years. And to say it is going to happen in 2012 only is nothing but not just pure surmise but foolishness.


2012 doomsday - why it gained so much attention? - 2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7


Theories that have no scientific basis

Every few days you will see that a new unscientific theory pops up saying world is going to end in 2012. While there is a limit to predictions that are said to be scientific, we can’t really control predictions that are unscientific isn’t it? Every now and then they just pop up. People start predicting religious scriptures in the way they wish and just come up with a theory. Here are a few:

As per Hopi Indians, who come from a group of Southwestern people called Pueblo, we are living in the 4th world and will move to 5th one soon. End of 4th world will bring spiritual conflict and destruction.



Many belonging to Christianity or Islam believe that the ‘Armageddon’ or the ‘Day of Judgment’ will happen on 21st Dec 2012. It is the final war between ‘the Satan and his army’ and ‘the Jesus and his army’. The Jesus is going to win the war and final judgment of men on earth will be done.



And in Hindu religion there is a different belief. There are four Yugas: Satya, Treta, Dwapara and Kali Yuga. And we are in Kaliyuga which started from 3102 BCE. It is believed that Lord Krishna mentioned that after first 5000 years in Kaliyuga, Golden age will start to continue for next 10000 years. And it is exactly 2012!! While, the question of how Kaliyuga is going to end will remain open, golden age is considered to be good. So, many say that the catastrophe will wipe out the bad in Kaliyuga and retains the good. So the end is for the sake of good. Even Babas and astrologers are stressing on the same in India.


With theories, the definitions for 2012 doomsday itself changes. Some say everything will just wipe out; some say only the ‘bad’ will be wiped out; some say it is partial catastrophe which kills millions of people but not all are going to see the end; and some say nothing physical will wipe out, it is just the thinking that changes. Wow! Which one is right? Most like, if you decide to believe, you will believe in what a person, whom you respect, supports.

Now, different religions have different sayings. And most of all they haven’t given any specific time when doomsday would strike us. They mention Armageddon, the war between Satan and the Jesus etc etc but show me a proof which indicates it is going to happen in 2012 only? And with Hindu religion, it also has a proof just like Mayan calendar which doesn’t answer how, where, why and what. It doesn’t point to any doomsday. In fact scriptures say Kaliyuga, in total, continues for 4320000 years. They all started saying doomsday is going to occur in 2012 just because Mayan calendar is ending on that particular day? Why Armageddon need to happen on that day itself, why not today? It is much clear that they are predicting these doomsdays because Mayan calendar is ending on 21st Dec 2012. Otherwise there is no reason, not even a religion based reason, why it should happen on that particular day or year.

Even people gone through pains of finding Nostradamus predictions about doomsday like the below:

After great misery for mankind an even greater one approaches, when the great cycle of the centuries is renewed. It will rain blood, milk, famine, war and disease. In the sky will be seen a fire, dragging a tail of sparks.


Now who is going to tell us it happens only on 21st December, 2012and why didn’t it happen on Y2K? The sayings by Nostradamus are so generic that you can almost assign any saying to any disaster. But yes, people claim they did proper research on these predictions. But every one of them almost failed every single time. More than that, on what basis Nostradamus would predict anything at all? Only he who lost his rational thinking believes in these predictions. No science can approve it. No religion can approve it because just like astrology this is just a speculation which has no logic to support its predictions. Only in movies you can see such predictions turning into reality and otherwise, in real, it will either fail or the predictor will cheat you. And even if there are predictors who really believe in what they say, it is their false belief and nothing else.

When it comes to Media, seems like every channel has its own program on 2012 that appears periodically. They all show impressive video clips and images which depict doomsday. And continue with details of what all different theories we have and how the world is going to end. Then you will see that there will be no analysis or very little analysis. The program will end with a big question ‘Is it true? Will world really end in 2012?’ And there are different gurus and babas [spiritual leaders] who continue with their own versions every day.

Some spiritual leader was commenting, ‘You don’t want pralaya[holocaust]? Why not? You are creating pralaya for animals so God is creating pralaya for you! Stop creating pralaya for animals and God will stop creating pralaya for you!!’

Some other Guruji was saying, ‘No. The world is not going to end. But the true disciples of God will be saved. You need to be sure you left all bad deeds. And we are arranging for a Pooja [worship of God] and yajna[religious ritual where God worship will be done. In earlier days a sacrifice used to be made to make God happy]. So make sure that you contact us for it and do Pooja and change yourselves before 2012.’

Now, what these people are trying to convince us? They themselves don’t have a unity in what will happen and how it is going to happen. They simply don’t know what they are talking about. They say global warming will cause deaths. This shows they heard that term – Global Warming. But in reality, they don’t even know what it is. It all looks total crap. You just need to become a third person to understand it is all crap. If you admire that spiritual leader then keep it aside and think for a moment. You will understand what he is saying is crap. I can’t believe they can relate doomsday prediction to what man is doing to animals!! And if doomsday is already decided why do you need to go for a special pooja? Or even why you need to care if you are already a good person with values? Why people fall for it – we will look in a later section. But yes, certainly there is no basis for any these predictions.